Why Economists Are Always Wrong
Quick. When I say the word “economist,” what comes to mind? Fearless truth-teller? Sage wise man? Someone whose deep understanding of the complex web of billions upon billions of daily interactions in the sphere of human activity enables them to predict the outcome of those interactions years in advance with near certainty?
…Or do you think of Paul Krugman?
Be honest now. It’s Krugman, isn’t it?
Why is that? How can it be that a profession that likes to call itself a science (even a dismal science) and whose practitioners are entrusted with steering the economies of entire nations can be so consistently, horribly, laughably wrong? (Case in point: Paul Krugman.)
It is not just that there are some equations here and there that need refining. It is not an incomplete theorem that is getting closer and closer to the truth with every approximation. The field of economics is in fact built on an entirely false premise and thus cannot yield anything but results that are only coincidentally related to reality…
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BORDERS
– What separates the community from that which is outside the community?
– Can a community exist without borders?
– Where do YOU choose to draw the border around YOUR community?
– Is conflict inevitable where an interface exists?
dumb question inspired by your intriguing border questions:
when the catallactic community whose activities revolve around the cultivation of viruses, the enhancement of radioactive materials and the development of cloning and other DNA engineering techniques gets organized who will decide what cooperation code is inacceptable for the well-being and continuation of the world’s communities?
can it happen spontaneously?
My understanding was that the catallactic community you allude to already HAD organized and that their plan included a code of cooperation. Regarding spontaneity; consider the above picture of 4 differently colored puzzle pieces coming together:
Snowflakes, specialization, division of labor…. we all bring different sets of skills to the table. The uniqueness of the individual is a net benefit to the community. However, some skill sets are more valuable to the community than others. Some puzzle pieces contribute significantly to the overall fitness of the community while, let’s be honest, some puzzle pieces struggle to fit in.
My questions, inspired by YOUR intriguing tangent, are:
– Will some puzzle pieces fare better than others in James’ proposed new Catallactic order of human activity?
– Will the snowflakes that don’t quite manage to “keep up with the Joneses” feel cheated?
– Will there be any snowflakes that fail to make ends meet? Will they be taken care of in the new system? How?
– What is a leader….?
– – – Does a leader manage and distribute information and coordinate the behaviors of his following?
– – – Are behaviors controlled to some degree by the beliefs held by the individual?
– – – Is James a leader?
– If individuals are different and we must allow individuals the freedom to express themselves….how are we to respond to those individuals who have the ability to inspire and lead? How do those puzzle pieces fit into the big picture? More to the point …..I find that MANY people actually want to be lead.
Yes. Puzzle pieces. A picture paints a thousand words I’ve heard. So six pictures paints six thousand words I guess…with a river on one end and a graveyard on the other…
Mr Corbett is a leader, arbitrator and provocateur… in perception fine-tuning and thought… I’m glad he hasn’t melted into a Newsbud. But he never would’ve because he couldn’t have.
and yes currently most of us care to be lead… and mislead…
I fear, should catallaxy exist one day, it will be because it was accorded and even imposed and not acquired through self appropriation. Which is discouraging only in that it means it would be, to a large extent, illusory.
But perhaps I’m a prisoner of my own mind and am suffering from a form of Stockholm syndrome:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uuk-h2ZYNJU
Gonna give your questions some serious thought…
Why reduce ourselves to one piece. If the intent of education was to produce polymaths who firstly have their own survival abilities covered, I.E. food, shelter, warmth, then further education could cover any number of subjects that would benefit and teach others. Simple in my eyes, but maybe I am being too simplistic?
I dont know answer to your questions but this might answer some of them or at least show you how people can organize even in a changing opporessive world if will to do so is there.
https://www.wired.com/2017/03/anarchist-bitcoin-coder-found-fighting-isis-syria/
I had to learn how to pronounce the word “Catallaxy”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HJnuhLh-g4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catallactics
Also, a couple phrases which hit a chord with me…
authoritarian interference
…an “anarchic†state of production results in supplying people better than the orders of a centralized omnipotent government. ….
As always, I enjoyed Corbett’s “Just for Fun” videos.
Here is another 15 seconds of “Fun” video.
Robert Ripley of Ripley’s Believe It Or Not – (1930)
“I will show you why you can’t beat Wall Street. There you are: Wall Street is crooked and not on the level. There is a graveyard at one end and a river at the other. Believe it or not.†– Ripley
(At the 7:17 mark) queued video.
https://youtu.be/cebDurDr6o4?t=7m17s
Well! I see and talk to lots and lots of people every day for my job and have been doing so for years.
Recently I’ve asked every person I come into contact with if they’ve heard about the massive and spectacular demonetization that began in India on the day the American president was elected.
None has.
Since 2008 I’ve asked every financial expert, banker and accountant I’ve met along with members of my entourage if they’ve heard of the BIS or BRI (in French).
None has.
I’ve asked the majority of the people I know and those I’ve come into contact with if they’ve ever heard of WTC7.
Almost none has.
I’ve asked the majority of the people I know and those I’ve come into contact with if they’ve ever seen or listened to a compelling climate skeptic in the media.
None has.
I’ve asked the majority of the people I know and those I’ve come into contact with if they’ve ever seen a chemtrail.
None has.
No, the real news is the worldwide multi-million dollar football player fiscal fraud.
When I tell everyone that I’ve become deeply preoccupied by “Catallaxy” they’re anxiously going to ask me if there’s a vaccine against it or if it’s contagious.
Actually, my dad was a brilliant, highly esteemed and successful economist, bless him.
My comment above was one of my characteristically feeble attempts at humor but actually had the same tone as the condescending comments on the WUWT comments board disparaging “chemtrail nutters” in response to Tim Ball’s article on Chemtrails… hmmmmmmmmmm
lol, I liked it and agree, as frustrating as that is. I’ve pointed to ‘chemtrails’ as they are being sprayed, have photos of them all over my blog, have been trying to “wake up” folks for years now (even regularly changing my tactics to try new methods) and I still don’t personally know a single person who has taken any action, even to speak up, against them or anything else NWO. Yes, I “know” plenty of fantastically aware folks online, and through meetups have met few personally, but it ends there.
Still, on a positive note let me just say, the young dude at the airport who noted I was “on the list” is the one I credit with waking me up, and he will never know it. So, let’s keep speaking up!
Could it be that all persons in this article have a common link?
just asking…
They’re not ‘stupendously wrong,’ they’re hand maidens for the global elite, and their job is to constantly brainwash us wage slaves to think that someone actually cares for us peons and isn’t just letting crooks, thieves, con artists and liars run the central banks.
Extending this thought, other than being Wall St. economists, what do all the people in the photographs in this article have in common? Anyone? Anyone?
Sorry, I think this is a question already posed here…
Cadallaxy, Universe of Cadillac drivers?
More bad humor, sorry.
What would Cadallaxy have to conclude about an urban subset of the populace which is on average poorer, less educated and over-reproductive, and chooses as a primary survival and betterment strategy the acquisition of Cadillacs? This actually does seems to be the kind of issue where this would apply, right?
There is a wise saying (quote) from my part of the world, which perfectly explain all our troubles. It goes like this… (literal translation)
“if the head of the household is busy beating the “Bendir” (a big hand frame drum), the rest of the household will only be expected to dance”
Power corrupts, and absolute power, corrupts absolutely. (i have seen this first hand!)
It is not just economists or scientist or doctors (etc) that’s gone bad. It is everything… when you need to achieve something “nobody” wants, you will have to employ economists, doctors, and scientist that are corrupt or corrupt-able.
Recently, President Fidel Castro passed away (RIP), his country experienced the longest embargo in history, yet they have the best doctors, medicine and best education system in comparison… Why is that?? IMO, it is because it is not as corrupted as the western system.
“A fish rots from the head down” Turkish proverb.
Western civilization is rotting from the head down, not because of incompetence, but by design. They need corrupt people at the top to achieve agenda’s that moral good people would never engage in (for example, killing people via wars, bad medicine or over worked via slavery and taxation)
It seems that the people get the rulers they deserve. This planet may be a school, and surely the people must be learning something?
VoA: Recently, President Fidel Castro passed away (RIP), his country experienced the longest embargo in history, yet they have the best doctors, medicine and best education system in comparison… Why is that?? IMO, it is because it is not as corrupted as the western system. “A fish rots from the head down†Turkish proverb.
4TLeser: Could it be that all persons in this article have a common link? just asking…
Came acroos the Jerusalem Post’s 2014 list of the most influential Jews. This was the top six:
1. Jack Lew, Secretary of the United States Treasury
2. Janet Yellen, Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve
3. Binyamin Netanyahu, Prime minister of Israel
4. Shimon Peres , President of Israel
5. Sheldon Adelson, CEO and owner of Sands Hotel and Casino, philanthropist
6. Malcolm Hoenlein, Vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations
So the first two hold the top two financial administration positions for the US government, the next two run the Israeli government, and the next two “influence” US government policy. Btw, George Soros had a bad year – he was all the way down in 39th. On the other hand, Haim Saban took the #1 spot this year – go, Haimie! Anyway here is what Gilad Atzmon had to say about that ’14 list:
Yesterday The Jerusalem Post published its “list of the world’s 50 most influential Jews,†those who in one way or another have “worked tirelessly for the improvement of humanity and, in doing so, have made their mark on history.†The truth is that the list does not exactly fit the Post’s description of it. Not a single humanist is listed; instead we find a catalogue of Jewish war criminals, financiers, gambling tycoons, ethnic cleanser advocates, a Holocaust fraudster, a few Rabbis with minimal importance even within the Jewish world and one Ethiopian entertainer.
The J Post’s list is headed by US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, “who in his position in the cabinet is vital to shaping President Barack Obama’s policy.†Lew is followed by Janet Yellen, “another American Jew who made history this year when she became the first woman ever appointed chair of the Federal Reserve.†Apparently the 1st and 2nd ‘most influential Jews in the world’ are now taking care of American finance. Let’s hope that these ‘influential Jews’ know what they are doing because the last two influential Jews who ran the Federal Reserve left the world’s economy in ruin.
Nice…
Hello Mark,
All i got from your post above is.. It is the “Jews” that is to blame… and if we apply the same logic to ISIS, then it is the “Muslims” that are to blame… Which in my opinion, is a “Divide and Conquer” strategy deployed and “paid for” tactics designed by the “Powers that shouldn’t be”.
allow me to explain.
It is very easy to imagine that everything is the fault of the Jews?. You just need to look at Hollywood, or banking or “lawyers in New York” or successful doctors (lots of Jews) and human nature will drive your thought to condemning the whole religion. When in fact there is a better explanation.
Our brothers and sisters from the Jewish faith were driven (exodus) from their lands and made to live among others in diaspora. this made them the “under dogs”, and got them to study and work twice as hard just to fit into the society they lived in.
As a result, today there are more successful Jewish people compared to the average. Just look at “books”. There are more successful Psychology, strategy and science books written by Jewish people than average. (they also tend to stick together in groups based on their religion – which i guess we all would do if we felt we are not accepted by the others)
So, this leads the average “person” to think the Jewish faith is behind all troubles in the world, which is a fallacy designed by the “Powers that shouldn’t be” to divert our attention from the real “person/group” that’s behind the curtain.
It is not the Jewish people/faith that’s to blame here… It is a group of people, sometimes they are Zionist (from all religions), some times they are Council F.R., other times it is the Cross and Bones… if you look further in history you will start seeing where the smoke is coming from…..
It is Rings within Rings !
That’a one way to look at it, but it also is the way we are trained to look at it, isn’t it? We are trained to look at Jews as a religious group and not as an ethnic group, as a cultural group. We are trained to look at them as the victims of bigotry and not as bigots themselves, the “chosen people” of God who look down at the rest of us with contempt (it’s all in their Books). We aren’t told about the full nature of historical conflicts between Jews and Europeans/Christians, about Jews siding with the oppressors, about the history of Jewish usury and it’s impact. We don’t analyze why a relatively small ethnic group has managed to survive for thousands of years, most of that living among other peoples, not assimilating, often living in conflict. We don’t think about how unique that is and what it really means about that people.
We are told about the holocaust, of course, over and over and over again, just like We hear people being accused of antisemitism constantly (and how often do we think of that as a slur?). But no one really looks at the holocaust, how that tale developed, how truthful it is, how that myth is used as a club to beat the rest of us, and the consequences of that. We don’t think about really the only set of actual thought crime laws in the “free-thinking” west being related to holocaust denial, and we don’t look at how those laws were enacted. We don’t think about the people who have gone to prison in places like contemporary Germany for nothing more than opening their mouths.
More to your point, we don’t really look at Jews controlling Wall St. banking or Hollywood or the media in general (or the pornographic slice of that), or their disproportionate participation in legal and medical or higher education “industries” and the impact of that. We don’t talk about the chairmen of the Fed being Jewish for the last 30 years. We don’t think about having 3 out of 8 supreme court justices being Jews, and that it would be 4 of 9 had Obama’s nominee been approved. We don’t think about having 10% of senate being Jewish (or 22% of Democrats); in CA both our Democratic senators are Jewish, no one talks about that although everyone recognizes that both are women. One is a warmonger and the other, one of the most liberal in the senate over the last quarter century, also supports our wars.
We talk about neocons, but how many really connect this movement to Jews? The same question can be asked about neoliberalism, I think. We talk about the impact of AIPAC, but how many people know the way Mearsheimer and Walt were viciously attacked for writing a fair and balanced book on the subject? What about Finkelstein writing about the holocaust industry?
People here fully understand propaganda and how it’s used by the establishment to keep the people in line. Do they recognize the masters of that, and for what purpose it’s applied? Do they know that the father of propaganda, Edward Burnays, was Freud’s nephew? Do they know what a sham Freud’s psychoanalysis was as science and how its been used to impact thinking in the west? Do people understand the nature and impact of Jewish intellectual movements on the west, are you allowed to talk about that?
And that’s without getting into the money, the extent to which Jewish money dominates political contributions, that the average Jewish American has an income 50% the average American, that they are the wealthiest ethnic or religious group in America, etc.
Jews make up about 2% of the US population, and they have an impact way out of proportion to that. There are also very serious questions regarding their leadership’s intentions, their loyalties, the way they look at the rest of us given the history. You are right about the role of leadership, I am not condemning the entire people as individuals, rather in the same way that other peoples out in the world might condemn America for its role as a colonizing, oppressive, war-mongering state. But if you think Jews are just another sub-group of white Americans within the ruling power structure I think you need to think again. This particular culture war has been going on for 2000 years. Who is winning today?
People here talk about folks following the commands of their oppressors. How is anyone going to do anything about that if to a very real extent they don’t even recognize who they are?
Hi Again Mark,
you say above
“But if you think Jews are just another sub-group of white Americans within the ruling power structure I think you need to think again.”
Original Jews (if there is such a thing) are not “white”. They were my colour (and in fact my own ethnicity). Since then Christianity came and some converted to Christians, and Islam came and some other converted to Islam.
Today, there are White Jews, Black Jews, Tanned Jews, Arab Jews, etc etc.. Judaism is a religion, not a race or “type” of people.
Also, for your information, There are Muslim Arabs, Christian Arabs, Orthodox Arabs, Jewish Arabs, Crazy ISIS Arabs, yet they are all Arabs.
Also, as far as ISIS is concerned… there is ISIS Arabs, ISIS Russians, ISIS Chinese, ISIS Turks and even ISIS Europeans… off course, plus ISIS CIA (the original brand)
“Original Jews (if there is such a thing) are not “whiteâ€. They were my colour (and in fact my own ethnicity). Since then Christianity came and some converted to Christians….”
Just a minor detail here – there are those who would say the Jewish converts are the Jews themselves, the people who revolted against their own messiah and then converted to a new brand of Judaism, that based not on the Torah, the priesthood and the temple and the sacrifice, but on the rabbis, the Talmud, the synagogues. The important matter here would be that Jews revolted against their own religion and so created the animosity with Christianity. Just something to consider.
“Today, there are White Jews, Black Jews, Tanned Jews, Arab Jews, etc etc.. Judaism is a religion, not a race or “type†of people.”
Sorry, but at best that’s a partial truth, and it skips the critical aspect entirely. Being Jewish is about the blood, about being part of a people. What does it take to reach full citizenship in Israel? It’s based on jus sanguinis (right of blood). Yes, there are black Jews, but because of blood, Jews interbreeding with black peoples; we’re not tallkin’ Sammy Davis here. Hell, Jews aren’t even a very religious people today – when you listen to Sam Harris talk about the religions of the Book he says the Jews have the worst sacred texts of all, but excuses them because even they don’t believe their shit.
One of the principal concerns of Jews is and has been interbreeding, the loss of the people through assimilation, and that’s why so much internal emphasis related to marriage has always been on intrabreeding. How do you think Jews have survived in the lands of other peoples, other religions? They are a people apart.
My understanding is that when Kevin MacDonald started his work on the Jews he was looking to do a study of a people who did not assimilate, like the Rmoani (Gypsies) or overseas Chinese, and he studied the Jews because they are the ultimate example. You might consider spending some time with his books, or those of E. Michael Jones, and throw in Jeff Gates’ Guilt by Association. I would recommend these to anyone as valuable reading, especially those stuck in the trap of political correctness.
History is an ephemeral, distortive thing when left in the hands of just a few. One of the most stunning revelations in my own experience came just recently, and serendipitously:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBPZzoVfNEA
What an explosive, and fresh view, from historians such as the Israeli Shlomo Sand referenced in the above video. I have since acquired two of Sand’s books, and am currently reading The Invention of the Jewish People.
Needless to say this is a perspective totally redacted from public view in the west. His work was a huge hit, however, in Israel.
VoA, I just wanted to another thing as possible clarification. I hope you and others recognize that the last two paragraphs of my original post were not me, rather were what Gilad Atzmon said about that list, and that Atzmon is a proud “self-hating” Jew. So that’s a clansman talking about his own people.
On your overall theory, I don’t know about wherever it is you’re from, but in the US we’re not trained to hate Jews, rather it’s quite the opposite, we’re trained to not even see them as Jews, rather just as more white people. And to a significant extent it’s the Jewish elite who have greatly influenced that training. So the notion that this is some divide-and-conquer strategy here is rather absurd.
Can a culture based on the notion of Original Sin
live in a state of catallaxy?
Can a culture with a collective consciousness filled with violence, war and tittytainment
live in a state of catallaxy?
Wouldn’t a catallactic society require immense self and mutual respect among its members?
Self-loathing?
Is that why we hold onto our rulers so tightly?
And never think to ask if a concept of spontaneous social order based on mutual benefit might exist?
Perhaps the most fundamental form of “mutual benefit” was peons submitting to the strongest warriors’ rule in exchange for protection.
Can catallaxy exist in a world of conquistadors?
Self-loathing? Perhaps that’s a good part of it. But, before my own “wake up” I did not think I felt self-loathing at all. I also did not realize I was a slave. I like the quote attributed to Harriette Tubman–“I freed 1,000 slaves. I’d have freed 1,000 more had they known they were slaves.”
I’ve gotten so much out of this article: https://climateviewer.com/2014/04/06/the-anatomy-of-political-slavespeak/
I think we can make changes through changing our own language usage and modeling personal freedom and responsibility, and that seems to me so far to be the least tyrannical of all the other options. I have made loads of mistakes in order to learn this. 🙂
Thank you for your reply and your link. I shall give the latter due attention.
I had a teacher who once said she didn’t know what she thought until she saw what she said. Which is why this site is so valuable to me.
Attempting to be fully aware of what you’re actually saying can be a very instructive exercise.
“Modeling personal freedom and responsability…” have to mull that over…
Until next time on this helpful site.
Absolutely. You may find the concept of neurolinguistic programming interesting. Robert Anton Wilson talked about it often. Another beloved anarchist of mine.
I’m very glad you mentioned neurolinguistic programming (NLP), lucid. Up until now I’ve failed to make reference to the concept when on this site.
The psychological processes deployed against us definitely include NLP, and form part of what James so colourfully described as “the coercive management of human cattle for the benefit of a unitary plan (“economics”)”.
Incidentally, NLP is the tool Darren Brown uses in his popular UK TV program Mind Control (on YouTube as well).
That is one very thought-provoking link, Mishelle. tyvm
It’s a lengthy discourse, there is much in the way of new-aspect thought, and many quotable quotes as well. I’d never been exposed to the writing of lawyer Lysander Spooner, for example, but was intrigued by the enormity of his proposition.
A philosophical take-away from another part of the article is worth quoting here:
“You need to live your life in accordance with actuality: what is, what exists, what occurs. So I live my life out of a context of liberty, a libertarian enclave, an anarcho-libertarian enclave. I carry it with me like an aura.
“I have abilities: the ability called life, the ability to own property, the ability to produce, the ability to exchange, the ability to communicate. And my abilities do not depend on the agreement of others.
“I am supreme. I rule no one and no one rules me. I am responsible for every aspect of my life. My self-esteem, my power and my liberty can only be curbed by my own limitations.
“There are of course those who think otherwise, who would seek to violate my abilities — what you might call ‘rights’. When making choices, I take that into consideration.”
Along a line similar to the last sentence, I recall a phrase from W. Somerset Maugham in his small volume The Summing Up. As an aside, at the time of his writing this, Maugham was 65 and thought it useful to present a retrospective of his life, as context to his body of work before he died. He lived to be 92.
Anyway, his thought was, and I paraphrase: In this life you can do as you please, as long as you keep an eye out for the policeman on the corner.
– Italy – 5 Stars
I am curious as to how their votes turn out, and its effect across the world’s financial system.
The Euro and bailouts…oh my!
– Italy –
http://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-votes-no-in-referendum-projections-indicate-1480891355
Excerpts –
…Among the biggest winners from Italy’s vote is the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement…
…The party has called for a nonbinding referendum on Italy’s euro membership. It also wants to abandon EU budget strictures and has said it might favor printing a parallel currency…
…Europe is facing a prolonged period of political upheaval, with elections also slated for 2017 in Germany, France and the Netherlands, all countries where economic anxiety, opposition to the EU and a surge in migration have fed growing support for populist parties…
– Austria Voters –
…Like the other populists across the continent, Mr. Hofer wanted to roll back the power of the European Union, toughen border controls, crack down on the flow of refugees and migrants to Europe and improve relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin….
James, I think you make some great points here but the conclusion is not correct, IMHO. Yes, we are all annoyed by this arrogant and pretentious bunch calling themselves, and being constantly referred to as, “economistsâ€. The likes of Krugman, Greenspan. Those who claim to be able to make precise quantitative predictions about the future. And when they are repeatedly and embarrassingly wrong they blame everybody and everything but themselves and their “scientific†methods.
You are quoting Mises’ Human Action to support your conclusion but Mises actually makes very different conclusion. He is a defender of economics against its critics and, in the very same chapter you quote, writes: “… it [economics] must study not only the market phenomena [i.e. “catallacticsâ€], but no less the hypothetical conduct of an isolated man and …â€. This, I believe, means that while catallactics is and must be the major focus of economics it must be put in the proper context – exchange on the market (which is what catallactics is all about) is a way for humans to overcome the problem of scarcity. After all, individuals don’t participate in cooperation and exchange with others because this “nearly unfathomably complex web of activities that bind humanity together†is impressive when we step back and look at it with the eye of a curious observer. It is indeed marvelous, and increasingly so with all those recent technologies but let’s not downplay the central issue – scarcity. In other words, catallactics should be part of economics, not study of its own.
I think there is absolutely nothing wrong with the terms economics, economy, economies or economise. The confusion sets in when we begin to talk about THE economy and come up with such horrible and misleading phrases as “the U.S. economy grew by 2.32%†or “we need to stimulate the economyâ€.
And I also insist this is not a semantic quibble. When we discard the notion of economies we are likely to end up agreeing with Marxists (and technocrats) that “scarcity is a historical category only†( quote from Human Action , as above). And believing that we live in a “zero marginal cost society†(yes, Jeremy Rifkin). Because with all those technologies (including 3D printing)… how come there is still scarcity? It must be a conspiracy of the privileged classes – they are preventing us from entering post-scarcity age, right?
your question: “When I say the word “economist,†what comes to mind?”
My “response”: A generalized group of “financial fraudsters/parasites/predators” contributing NOTHING to REAL labor-based productivity/common prosperity.
Very nice episode of Tom Woods show here. A discusion of the fundamental problems with Federal Reserve-style economics and why the Austrians are right on economics.
https://tomwoods.com/ep-1214-how-austrian-school-economists-predicted-the-major-economic-crises/